The region is projected to exceed four million people by 2050. Metro Vancouver can expect to have 4.2 million residents by 2050, according to the latest population estimates from the regional authority.
New modelling suggests the region is gaining a total of 50,000 net new residents per year, up from 37,500 under previous models.
Federal policy changes “are having a significant impact on regional population projections,” Sinisa Vukicevic, a manager of regional planning and housing services at Metro Vancouver, wrote in a recent report.
“The region’s demographic future will not be a simple extension of past trends and growth assumptions,” Vukicevic wrote.
Given “increasing levels of complexity” around population estimates, Metro Vancouver reactivated an old task force to update existing population models and assumptions. The task force is made up of representatives from Metro Vancouver, the provincial government, local municipalities and industry as well as academics.
“The current updates to the regional projections assume higher than historical immigration rates given the recent trends,” Vukicevic wrote.
Metro Vancouver currently receives about 11 per cent of all new immigrants to Canada.
Migration from other provinces is a “minor contributor” to regional population growth and recent housing legislation announced by the province is “not anticipated to increase population growth,” according to Vukicevic’s report.
Migration within B.C. plays no role in population growth within the region. Less than half a per cent of all population growth in Metro Vancouver from 2012-2022 was from within B.C., on average. At the same time, roughly one per cent of the region’s population moved to other parts of the province — often to Mission, Abbotsford or Chilliwack.
Roughly 25,000 people leave Metro Vancouver for other parts of the province each year, according to Vukicevic’s report.
Population increases from births are not expected to be a significant contributor to population growth in the coming years, the report notes. After 2035, population growth from births “will have a negative trend,” Vukicevic wrote.
Metro Vancouver’s population projections are the main data source used when estimating future demand for land, housing, jobs, and infrastructure planning.
The new model offers three scenarios with low, medium and high projections for population growth. The medium projection growth is assumed to be the most likely.
Immigration and fertility rates differ between the three scenarios, with the low growth scenario assuming lower immigration and fertility rates, and the high growth scenario assuming higher immigration and fertility rates.
“Higher immigration rates typically result in a greater proportion of children and younger families in the region,” Vukicevic wrote.
Source: Vancouver SUN
